Rest of Season Projection
AlexCategoryFernando
42K →47
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–2W →2–7
1–6SV ←0
Current Season
AlexCategoryFernando
28K →30
2.21ERA →2.19
0.93WHIP ←1.30
1W →3
2SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alex Vesia
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.44)
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.99 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Vesia projects for 42 K / 3.70 ERA vs Cruz 47 K / 3.67 ERA. Cruz holds a slight K edge; ERA and WHIP are nearly equal. Hold Vesia; sell Cruz before regression.