MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 22, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSH · P
Change to
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Andrew Alvarez.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, wins, and saves.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Andrew Alvarez wins 3 categories (K, W, SV); Burch Smith wins 2 (ERA, WHIP).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
92.4
Burch Smith
93.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
12.0%
Burch Smith
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
23.6%
Burch Smith
27.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
30.9%
Burch Smith
26.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
44.4%
Burch Smith
47.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
6.0%
Burch Smith
4.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
.329
Burch Smith
.287
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
2.744.72
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.02
4.28
Burch Smith
2.744.72
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
1.151.56
now 1.28
1.39
Burch Smith
1.151.56
now 1.47
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
4042.20
now 17
35
Burch Smith
4042.20
now 20
20
Winshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0004.20
now 1
13
Burch Smith
.0004.20
now 0
00
Saveshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0005.60
now 1
14
Burch Smith
.0005.60
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
SellAndrew Alvarez — sell.conf 0.70
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
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