MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 4, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSH · P
Change to
Portrait of Matt Festa
Matt Festa
CLE · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Andrew Alvarez.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, wins, and saves. Matt Festa’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Andrew Alvarez wins 3 categories (K, W, SV); Matt Festa wins 2 (ERA, WHIP).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
92.4
Matt Festa
92.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
12.0%
Matt Festa
13.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
23.0%
Matt Festa
24.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
30.7%
Matt Festa
29.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
43.9%
Matt Festa
41.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
5.5%
Matt Festa
9.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
.327
Matt Festa
.316
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
3.764.94
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.02
4.23
Matt Festa
3.764.94
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.68
4.02
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
1.171.48
now 1.28
1.41
Matt Festa
1.171.48
now 1.24
1.26

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
4033.60
now 17
28
Matt Festa
4033.60
now 27
17
Winshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0002.80
now 1
12
Matt Festa
.0002.80
now 1
01
Saveshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0004.40
now 1
13
Matt Festa
.0004.40
now 1
01
If you already own them — trade angle
SellAndrew Alvarez — sell.conf 0.67
Hold · steadyMatt Festa — hold.conf 0.60
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