MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 9, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSH · P
Change to
Portrait of Paul Blackburn
Paul Blackburn
NYY · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22, 1 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Andrew Alvarez wins 2 (K, SV); Paul Blackburn wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
92.4
Paul Blackburn
94.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
12.4%
Paul Blackburn
9.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
25.4%
Paul Blackburn
17.9%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Alvarez
31.2%
Paul Blackburn
25.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
41.7%
Paul Blackburn
32.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
4.7%
Paul Blackburn
6.1%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Alvarez
.313
Paul Blackburn
.292
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
3.054.30
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.02
3.95
Paul Blackburn
3.054.30
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.33
3.69
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Alvarez
1.171.52
now 1.28
1.35
Paul Blackburn
1.171.52
now 1.44
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
4049.60
now 17
40
Paul Blackburn
4049.60
now 16
18
Winshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0005.20
now 1
14
Paul Blackburn
.0005.20
now 2
13
Saveshigher is better
Andrew Alvarez
.0005.60
now 1
14
Paul Blackburn
.0005.60
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAndrew Alvarez — hold.conf 0.60
Sell HighPaul Blackburn — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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