Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryZack
81K ←72
4.50ERA ←5.39
1.38WHIP →1.37
1–3W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryZack
43K ←35
5.74ERA →5.01
1.52WHIP →1.37
1W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Painter
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 6.08 is 1.07 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Painter projects for 81 K with a 4.50 ERA against Littell's 72 K and 5.39 ERA. Painter's surface stats understate the skill; Littell's overstate it. Buy Painter; sell Littell.