Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryConnor
20HR ←10
70R ←27
70RBI ←25
3SB →10
.270AVG ←.193
Current Season
BenCategoryConnor
17HR ←4
44R ←16
44RBI ←15
2SB →6
.306AVG ←.208
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Connor Norby
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Connor Norby: 10 HR / 27 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).