Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryGavin
20HR ←9
70R ←39
70RBI ←41
3SB →5
.270AVG ←.220
Current Season
BenCategoryGavin
17HR ←9
44R ←22
44RBI ←23
2SB →3
.306AVG ←.245
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Gavin Sheets
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.338, +0.023 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Gavin Sheets: 9 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).