Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJared
18HR ←12
64R ←35
64RBI ←20
3SB ←0
.261AVG →.284
Current Season
BenCategoryJared
17HR ←2
44R ←7
44RBI ←4
2SB ←0
.306AVG.306
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.396 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming
Jared Young
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.398)
Ben Rice: 18 HR / 64 R. Jared Young: 12 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).