Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryMichael
20HR ←16
70R ←39
70RBI ←53
3SB ←2
.270AVG ←.246
Current Season
BenCategoryMichael
17HR ←6
44R ←26
44RBI ←35
2SB ←1
.306AVG ←.243
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Michael Busch
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Michael Busch: 16 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).