Rest of Season Projection
BenCategorySpencer
20HR ←14
70R ←29
70RBI ←36
3SB ←0
.270AVG ←.204
Current Season
BenCategorySpencer
17HR ←8
44R ←18
44RBI ←22
2SB ←0
.306AVG ←.210
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Spencer Torkelson
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Spencer Torkelson: 14 HR / 29 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).