Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryKerry
6HR →10
36R ←27
7RBI →43
7SB ←0
.233AVG ←.185
Current Season
BlakeCategoryKerry
1HR →7
10R →12
2RBI →19
2SB ←0
.269AVG ←.239
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.345 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.274 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
Kerry Carpenter
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.303)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
Blake Dunn: 6 HR / 36 R. Kerry Carpenter: 10 HR / 27 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).