MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
259 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Kerry Carpenter

DET·RF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.59
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Carpenter is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .295, twenty points below the league average of .315, and it has been stepping down across the sample rather than leveling off. His actual wOBA is .301, so there is no suppressed BABIP dragging a better line down — the surface and the skill agree with each other. His strikeout rate is the second problem: 29%, well above league, and climbing across the sample. He swings through 14.4% of pitches and chases 36.3%, both far above league, which confirms the strikeouts are earned rather than a cold stretch. He does hit the ball hard — 89.8 mph average exit velocity and a 44% hard-hit rate — but hard contact on a high strikeout rate and a walk rate under 7% caps the production. This is the level he's at. Sell. A .000 AVG with 0 HR leaves him a waiver-wire fringe, droppable wherever he's on your roster.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.4%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~12.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.0%
44.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.4%
norm9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
259 / 160 PA
wOBA.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
259 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.0%
29.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
259 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
259 / 120 PA
BABIP.240
norm.240*
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm −.070 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA
Chase %36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.4%→11.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.4% (signal) lifted to career ~12.9% → projected 11.3%.
BABIP 0.240→0.246 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.240 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.248 (xBA 0.212) → 0.246.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 39 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups