MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
231 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kerry Carpenter

DET·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306); strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 5AVG .181R 15RBI 24SB 0

Carpenter is a hold — league average, trend lines going south.

His expected wOBA is .306, essentially at the league average of .315, and the number is reliable with 231 plate appearances. His contact quality metrics — exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate — are all above league and stable. But the trajectory matters: his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, and his strikeout rate has been stepping up, now at 31.2% against a league average of 22.0%. That elevated K rate caps his floor: even good contact can't outrun whiffing a third of the time. His actual .325 wOBA sits slightly above the expected mark, but there's no unstable luck stat pulling it meaningfully one way or the other. The picture is roughly league average, with enough data to trust it. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.2%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~12.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.5%
48.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
134 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
231 / 160 PA
wOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
231 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm —
231 / 60 PA
Walk %7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
231 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
norm.264*
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm −.046 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
134 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
15.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
231 / 50 PA
Chase %35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
231 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.2%→12.2%signal5 HR — Barrel% 11.2% (signal) lifted to career ~12.9% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.264→0.249 regressednoise.181 AVG — BABIP 0.264 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.211) → 0.249.
on-base + lineup15 R — his run rate over ~158 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~158 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 39 G) over ~158 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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