Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryDerek
2HR →6
23R →26
30RBI ←17
13SB →17
.234AVG ←.213
Current Season
BrandonCategoryDerek
0HR →3
9R9
12RBI ←6
5SB →6
.294AVG ←.234
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Lockridge
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.302)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Brandon Lockridge: 2 HR / 23 R. Derek Hill: 6 HR / 26 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).