Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryTrent
10HR →16
49R →53
40RBI →50
7SB ←6
.302AVG ←.233
Current Season
BrandonCategoryTrent
5HR →7
29R →33
24RBI →31
4SB4
.317AVG ←.207
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Trent Grisham
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Trent Grisham: 16 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).