MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Portrait of Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt
AZ · P
Change to
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Burch Smith.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Brandon Pfaadt’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Brandon Pfaadt wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Brandon Pfaadt
93.2
Burch Smith
93.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Brandon Pfaadt
10.3%
Burch Smith
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Brandon Pfaadt
16.0%
Burch Smith
27.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Brandon Pfaadt
31.9%
Burch Smith
26.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Brandon Pfaadt
34.0%
Burch Smith
47.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Brandon Pfaadt
7.5%
Burch Smith
4.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Brandon Pfaadt
.300
Burch Smith
.287
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Brandon Pfaadt
2.226.55
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.59
3.74
Burch Smith
2.226.55
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Brandon Pfaadt
1.151.56
now 1.41
1.27
Burch Smith
1.151.56
now 1.47
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Brandon Pfaadt
4040
now 30
7
Burch Smith
4040
now 20
5
Winshigher is better
Brandon Pfaadt
.000.480
now 0
00
Burch Smith
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
BuyBrandon Pfaadt — buy.conf 0.70
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
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