Rest of Season Projection
BrentCategoryPierce
42K ←37
3.68ERA ←3.75
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–6W ←2–5
0SV →1–3
Current Season
BrentCategoryPierce
29K ←20
2.00ERA ←3.27
1.37WHIP →1.23
3W ←2
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brent Headrick
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.39)
Pierce Johnson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.23 is 2.96 above the ERA — regression coming
Headrick projects for 42 K / 3.68 ERA vs Johnson's 37 K / 3.75 ERA. Both carry similar ratios; the hold verdict on Headrick and sell-high on Johnson reflect the spread.