Rest of Season Projection
JoséCategoryPierce
45K ←37
3.70ERA ←3.75
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W →2–5
1–3SV1–3
Current Season
JoséCategoryPierce
26K ←20
5.59ERA →3.27
1.81WHIP →1.23
1W →2
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
José Alvarado
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.44 sits 0.66 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.424 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Pierce Johnson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.23 is 2.96 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado: 46 K / 3.70 ERA. Pierce Johnson: 38 K / 3.75 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).