Rest of Season Projection
BriceCategoryDavid
7HR ←6
27R →33
27RBI ←22
4SB ←0
.183AVG →.193
Current Season
BriceCategoryDavid
4HR ←3
14R ←12
14RBI ←8
2SB ←0
.204AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brice Matthews
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.259 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
David Fry
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.360 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.280 is 0.067 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Brice Matthews: 7 HR / 27 R. David Fry: 6 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).