MLB Daily DeltaWeek 15 · July 8, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar
MIA · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Lake Bachar.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts and ERA. Caleb Ferguson’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Lake Bachar wins 2 categories (K, ERA); Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (WHIP); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.5
Lake Bachar
94.7
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.2%
Lake Bachar
14.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.9%
Lake Bachar
25.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
29.8%
Lake Bachar
29.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
34.0%
Lake Bachar
41.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
2.1%
Lake Bachar
8.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.286
Lake Bachar
.288
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.28
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Lake Bachar
25.28
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.77
3.68
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.51
now 0.60
1.24
Lake Bachar
.9001.51
now 1.01
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4045.20
now 6
33
Lake Bachar
4045.20
now 32
34
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.000.480
now 0
00
Lake Bachar
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeLake Bachar — hold.conf 0.50
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