Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryJackson
10HR →12
38R ←37
38RBI ←31
10SB →14
.249AVG ←.243
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryJackson
5HR ←2
23R ←13
23RBI ←11
6SB ←5
.275AVG.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.303 is 0.041 below the surface — regression coming
Jackson Chourio
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.337)
Ceddanne Rafaela: 10 HR / 38 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).