Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryMatt
4HR →9
47R ←30
24RBI →29
1SB →10
.233AVG ←.227
Current Season
ChaseCategoryMatt
5HR5
36R ←22
18RBI →21
1SB →7
.269AVG ←.198
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.353 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.296 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
Matt McLain
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Chase Meidroth: 4 HR / 47 R. Matt McLain: 9 HR / 30 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).