Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryJoel
30K ←20
3.70ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←1–2
0SV →4–8
Current Season
ChaseCategoryJoel
20K ←13
2.33ERA ←3.04
0.93WHIP ←1.18
2W ←1
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.74 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Joel Kuhnel
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.35)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Chase Shugart: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Joel Kuhnel: 20 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).