Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryMark
30K →34
3.70ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←0–0
0SV →4–7
Current Season
ChaseCategoryMark
20K →25
2.33ERA ←5.47
0.93WHIP ←1.46
2W ←0
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.74 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Mark Leiter Jr.
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.24 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chase Shugart: 30 K / 3.70 ERA. Mark Leiter Jr.: 34 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).