Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryPatrick
73K73
4.50ERA ←5.09
1.42WHIP →1.41
0–0W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryPatrick
35K →36
6.90ERA →3.65
1.71WHIP →1.36
0W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Paddack
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.352 elevated and unstable — the 7.17 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.71 is +0.61 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Patrick Corbin
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.62 +1.52 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Chris Paddack: 76 K / 4.48 ERA. Patrick Corbin: 75 K / 5.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).