Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryJoe
136K ←134
3.18ERA →3.07
1.11WHIP →1.09
9–19W ←4–10
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryJoe
80K ←79
2.01ERA ←3.20
0.94WHIP ←0.97
8W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Sale
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Joe Ryan
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.07)
Chris Sale: 136 K / 3.18 ERA. Joe Ryan: 134 K / 3.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).