Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryJohn
31K ←27
3.70ERA ←3.73
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–3W ←0–0
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ConnorCategoryJohn
15K ←13
3.12ERA →2.74
1.38WHIP →1.30
1W ←0
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Seabold
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 sits 1.03 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
John Schreiber
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.97 is 2.01 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Connor Seabold projects for 31 K / 3.70 ERA vs John Schreiber's 27 K / 3.73 ERA — virtually identical ratios; the buy-low and sell-high verdicts are the true separator.