Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryMitch
5HR →6
27R →35
34RBI ←17
3SB ←0
.228AVG ←.171
Current Season
ConnorCategoryMitch
0HR →2
8R →12
10RBI ←6
1SB ←0
.258AVG ←.187
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Wong
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.347 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.286 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
Mitch Garver
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.295)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Connor Wong: 5 HR / 27 R. Mitch Garver: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).