Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryOneil
14HR →19
57R →63
43RBI →61
11SB →28
.266AVG ←.242
Current Season
CorbinCategoryOneil
7HR →13
37R →42
28RBI →41
7SB →19
.286AVG ←.255
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Oneil Cruz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Oneil Cruz: 19 HR / 63 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).