Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryShohei
14HR →23
57R →58
43RBI →47
11SB ←9
.266AVG →.296
Current Season
CorbinCategoryShohei
7HR →10
37R →38
28RBI →31
7SB ←6
.286AVG →.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Shohei Ohtani
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.408, +0.093 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Shohei Ohtani: 23 HR / 58 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).