Rest of Season Projection
DavidCategoryHarrison
5HR →6
29R ←23
20RBI →33
0SB0
.190AVG.190
Current Season
DavidCategoryHarrison
3HR →5
12R ←10
8RBI →14
0SB0
.259AVG ←.170
What Each Player's System Trusts
David Fry
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.358 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.284 is 0.055 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Harrison Bader
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
David Fry: 5 HR / 30 R. Harrison Bader: 6 HR / 24 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).