Rest of Season Projection
DerekCategoryEvan
7HR →8
29R →37
20RBI →30
20SB ←15
.208AVG ←.186
Current Season
DerekCategoryEvan
3HR →6
9R →22
6RBI →18
6SB →9
.234AVG ←.171
What Each Player's System Trusts
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.296)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Evan Carter
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse
Derek Hill: 7 HR / 29 R. Evan Carter: 8 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).