Rest of Season Projection
DustinCategoryLucas
77K ←45
3.66ERA ←4.10
1.31WHIP →1.30
3–6W →7–14
0SV0
Current Season
DustinCategoryLucas
51K ←6
4.57ERA ←4.97
1.30WHIP ←1.74
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Dustin May
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.66)
Lucas Giolito
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.98 is 0.62 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Dustin May: 77 K / 3.66 ERA. Lucas Giolito: 45 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).