MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Portrait of Dustin May
Dustin May
MIL · P
Change to
Portrait of Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito
SD · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Lucas Giolito.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Dustin May’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Lucas Giolito wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Dustin May wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Dustin May
96.9
Lucas Giolito
90.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Dustin May
10.8%
Lucas Giolito
9.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Dustin May
22.6%
Lucas Giolito
13.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Dustin May
30.4%
Lucas Giolito
19.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Dustin May
44.6%
Lucas Giolito
43.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Dustin May
7.1%
Lucas Giolito
4.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Dustin May
.319
Lucas Giolito
.358
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Dustin May
3.755.32
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.57
4.23
Lucas Giolito
3.755.32
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.97
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Dustin May
1.121.92
now 1.30
1.36
Lucas Giolito
1.121.92
now 1.74
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Dustin May
4069
now 51
10
Lucas Giolito
4069
now 6
7
Winshigher is better
Dustin May
.0004.20
now 3
01
Lucas Giolito
.0004.20
now 2
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowDustin May — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.72
Hold · wait & seeLucas Giolito — hold.conf 0.50
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