Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryPaul
81K →126
4.96ERA →2.28
1.40WHIP →1.04
3–6W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
EricCategoryPaul
30K →75
5.95ERA →2.89
1.39WHIP →0.86
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Lauer
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.42 +1.32 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Eric Lauer: 81 K / 4.96 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).