Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryShawn
36K →37
3.71ERA3.70
1.26WHIP →1.24
2–4W ←1–3
1–2SV ←0
Current Season
EricCategoryShawn
25K ←19
3.95ERA →3.60
1.39WHIP →1.33
2W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Orze
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.79 sits 0.31 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Shawn Armstrong
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.15 is 0.83 above the ERA — regression coming
Eric Orze: 36 K / 3.71 ERA. Shawn Armstrong: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).