Rest of Season Projection
GrahamCategorySam
32K →35
3.67ERA →3.64
1.26WHIP →1.25
1–2W1–2
1–2SV ←0
Current Season
GrahamCategorySam
32K ←29
3.33ERA →2.22
1.22WHIP →1.09
1W1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Graham Ashcraft
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.29)
Sam Bachman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.86 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
Ashcraft projects for 33 K / 3.67 ERA, Bachman for 36 K / 3.64 ERA. The numbers are nearly identical; verdicts diverge due to sell-high signal for Bachman.