Rest of Season Projection
GusCategoryKevin
32K ←26
3.74ERA →3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W →2–6
4–8SV ←1–5
Current Season
GusCategoryKevin
20K ←19
4.09ERA →2.67
1.55WHIP →0.81
1W →3
4SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gus Varland
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.84)
Kevin Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.218 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.67 is 1.24 above the ERA — regression coming
Gus Varland: 33 K / 3.74 ERA. Kevin Kelly: 27 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).