MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
Hunter Dobbins
STL · P
Change to
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Hunter Dobbins wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); Steven Matz wins 2 (K, W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Hunter Dobbins
95.5
Steven Matz
93.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Hunter Dobbins
10.8%
Steven Matz
10.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Hunter Dobbins
24.2%
Steven Matz
17.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Hunter Dobbins
25.3%
Steven Matz
27.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Hunter Dobbins
48.4%
Steven Matz
36.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Hunter Dobbins
11.3%
Steven Matz
13.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Hunter Dobbins
.346
Steven Matz
.366
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Hunter Dobbins
3.645.70
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.50
4.10
Steven Matz
3.645.70
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
5.24
WHIPlower is better
Hunter Dobbins
1.171.45
now 1.38
1.30
Steven Matz
1.171.45
now 1.24
1.37

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Hunter Dobbins
4055.60
now 8
32
Steven Matz
4055.60
now 35
42
Winshigher is better
Hunter Dobbins
.0008.40
now 0
00
Steven Matz
.0008.40
now 4
36

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeHunter Dobbins — hold.conf 0.50
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.90
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