Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryRiley
12HR →15
36R →46
31RBI →41
14SB ←1
.251AVG →.276
Current Season
JacksonCategoryRiley
2HR →5
13R →31
11RBI →28
5SB ←1
.276AVG →.309
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Riley Greene
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.362, +0.047 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Riley Greene: 15 HR / 46 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).