Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryTrent
12HR →15
36R →51
31RBI →48
14SB ←6
.251AVG ←.236
Current Season
JacksonCategoryTrent
2HR →7
13R →33
11RBI →31
5SB ←4
.276AVG ←.207
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Trent Grisham
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.345, +0.030 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Trent Grisham: 15 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).