Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryTrent
5HR →16
38R →53
48RBI →50
19SB ←6
.258AVG ←.233
Current Season
JakeCategoryTrent
4HR →7
20R →33
25RBI →31
10SB ←4
.288AVG ←.207
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Trent Grisham
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Trent Grisham: 16 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).