Rest of Season Projection
JonathanCategoryRafael
15HR15
50R ←39
64RBI ←45
0SB0
.253AVG ←.228
Current Season
JonathanCategoryRafael
11HR ←7
34R ←26
43RBI ←30
0SB0
.283AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jonathan Aranda
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.384, +0.069 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jonathan Aranda: 15 HR / 50 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).