Rest of Season Projection
JuanCategoryTroy
22HR ←8
49R ←38
53RBI ←41
9SB ←5
.280AVG →.297
Current Season
JuanCategoryTroy
13HR ←2
27R ←23
29RBI ←25
5SB ←3
.297AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Juan Soto
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Juan Soto: 22 HR / 49 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).