Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryTroy
12HR ←8
37R →38
31RBI →41
14SB ←5
.243AVG →.295
Current Season
JacksonCategoryTroy
2HR2
13R →23
11RBI →25
5SB ←3
.276AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.337)
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.399 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.329 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 37 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).