MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Luis Severino
Luis Severino
ATH · P
Change to
Portrait of Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
BAL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Trevor Rogers.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA and WHIP. Luis Severino’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Trevor Rogers wins 2 categories (ERA, WHIP); Luis Severino wins 1 (K); 1 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Luis Severino
96.9
Trevor Rogers
93.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Luis Severino
10.9%
Trevor Rogers
11.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Luis Severino
24.0%
Trevor Rogers
18.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Luis Severino
31.3%
Trevor Rogers
33.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Luis Severino
38.7%
Trevor Rogers
39.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Luis Severino
8.7%
Trevor Rogers
6.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Luis Severino
.318
Trevor Rogers
.316
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Luis Severino
3.097.91
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.16
4.19
Trevor Rogers
3.097.91
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.84
4.16
WHIPlower is better
Luis Severino
1.271.64
now 1.47
1.41
Trevor Rogers
1.271.64
now 1.56
1.35

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Luis Severino
4075.80
now 65
57
Trevor Rogers
4075.80
now 38
43
Winshigher is better
Luis Severino
.2003.80
now 2
12
Trevor Rogers
.2003.80
now 2
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyLuis Severino — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · steadyTrevor Rogers — hold.conf 0.60
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