Rest of Season Projection
LukeCategoryMason
40K →51
3.67ERA ←3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
LukeCategoryMason
25K →30
2.77ERA ←3.91
1.04WHIP ←1.26
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luke Weaver
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.12 is 0.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Mason Montgomery
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.68)
Luke Weaver: 40 K / 3.67 ERA. Mason Montgomery: 51 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).