Rest of Season Projection
MarkCategoryRafael
15HR15
33R →40
45RBI →47
0SB0
.247AVG ←.230
Current Season
MarkCategoryRafael
7HR7
19R →26
26RBI →30
0SB0
.224AVG →.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Mark Vientos
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.245 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Mark Vientos: 15 HR / 33 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).