MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 12, 2026
Portrait of Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson
AZ · P
Change to
Shane Bieber
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ryne Nelson.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, WHIP, and wins.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ryne Nelson wins 3 categories (K, WHIP, W); Shane Bieber wins 1 (ERA); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
96.3
Shane Bieber
92.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
11.4%
Shane Bieber
10.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
17.5%
Shane Bieber
15.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
34.1%
Shane Bieber
30.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
43.4%
Shane Bieber
55.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
10.2%
Shane Bieber
14.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
.349
Shane Bieber
.477
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Ryne Nelson
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.82
4.82
Shane Bieber
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.00
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Ryne Nelson
.9002.32
now 1.19
1.28
Shane Bieber
.9002.32
now 2.00
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
4070.40
now 52
52
Shane Bieber
4070.40
now 6
48
Winshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
.0004.20
now 2
13
Shane Bieber
.0004.20
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellRyne Nelson — sell.conf 0.88
Hold · wait & seeShane Bieber — hold.conf 0.50
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