MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 12, 2026
Aaron Civale
ATH · P
Change to
Shane Bieber
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Shane Bieber.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Shane Bieber wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.3
Shane Bieber
92.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.2%
Shane Bieber
10.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
17.0%
Shane Bieber
15.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.4%
Shane Bieber
30.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
46.3%
Shane Bieber
55.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
9.7%
Shane Bieber
14.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.347
Shane Bieber
.477
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.78
Shane Bieber
3.346.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.00
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.022.28
now 1.47
1.39
Shane Bieber
1.022.28
now 2.00
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4064.80
now 39
46
Shane Bieber
4064.80
now 6
48
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.00011.20
now 5
48
Shane Bieber
.00011.20
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.86
Hold · wait & seeShane Bieber — hold.conf 0.50
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