MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Portrait of Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson
AZ · P
Change to
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ryne Nelson.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ryne Nelson wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Steven Matz wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
96.3
Steven Matz
93.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
11.4%
Steven Matz
10.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
17.5%
Steven Matz
17.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
34.1%
Steven Matz
27.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
43.4%
Steven Matz
36.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
10.2%
Steven Matz
13.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
.349
Steven Matz
.366
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Ryne Nelson
4.455.45
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.82
4.83
Steven Matz
4.455.45
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
5.23
WHIPlower is better
Ryne Nelson
1.121.44
now 1.19
1.28
Steven Matz
1.121.44
now 1.24
1.37

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
4058.80
now 52
40
Steven Matz
4058.80
now 35
38
Winshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
.0008
now 2
12
Steven Matz
.0008
now 4
36

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellRyne Nelson — sell.conf 0.89
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.90
Tweet