MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Portrait of Ryne Nelson
Ryne Nelson
AZ · P
Change to
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Ryne Nelson wins 1 (WHIP); Steven Matz wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
96.4
Steven Matz
93.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
11.4%
Steven Matz
9.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
17.4%
Steven Matz
17.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Ryne Nelson
33.5%
Steven Matz
29.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
43.8%
Steven Matz
35.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
10.2%
Steven Matz
10.7%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Ryne Nelson
.351
Steven Matz
.343
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Ryne Nelson
4.455.14
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.82
4.92
Steven Matz
4.455.14
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
4.74
WHIPlower is better
Ryne Nelson
1.121.39
now 1.19
1.29
Steven Matz
1.121.39
now 1.24
1.32

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
4072.80
now 52
0
Steven Matz
4072.80
now 35
0
Winshigher is better
Ryne Nelson
.0005.60
now 2
0–0
Steven Matz
.0005.60
now 4
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Sell HighRyne Nelson — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.88
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.84
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