Rest of Season Projection
SethCategoryZack
90K ←63
4.84ERA ←5.26
1.36WHIP →1.35
2–4W →5–11
0SV0
Current Season
SethCategoryZack
60K ←35
3.55ERA ←5.01
1.35WHIP ←1.37
2W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Seth Lugo
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.24 +1.14 vs league with no luck excuse
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.89 is 1.13 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Seth Lugo: 90 K / 4.84 ERA. Zack Littell: 63 K / 5.26 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).